COVID-19's Ultimate Impact on Online Learning: The Good and the Bad
What's more, as commentators are fond of saying, higher education is counter cyclical because adults return to college in tough times to wait out the recession while investing in themselves.
The majority of adult learners who return to school will almost certainly enroll in online programs out of a desire for convenience and accessibility — especially given the current physical-distancing requirements. Early data suggests that students are bullish on online colleges and universities — and relatively less interested in community college options and traditional offline education environments. Many adult learners will also enroll in unaccredited online programs that are faster and cheaper and are tied to a field of potential employment.
Online programs that create overwhelmingly positive experiences and successfully serve learners who would have otherwise pursued a more traditional offline avenue will build brand loyalty among this group — which will likely translate into greater positivity around online learning more generally.
Where the Bad Drives Good
Even this, though, isn't the whole story, because the longer physical distancing continues, traditional colleges and universities are likely to pour more resources into innovating and constructing more robust online experiences. Even if their faculty and current students have soured on the experience, they will have no choice.
Granted, many institutions won't be able to afford the investment this will require. But many institutions are also likely to close, merge or declare financial exigency given the financial pressures mounting throughout the economy — so the volume of students will go elsewhere.
Institutions that are sturdy or have forward-thinking leadership will innovate.
As Joseph Aoun, president of Northeastern University, wrote recently, "Replicating online the vibrancy of the campus experience is within reach. Already, young musicians play 'together' online. Undergraduates conduct research in virtual labs. Even campus athletics have turned to esports."
Northeastern is even figuring out how to maintain its famed coop programs in which students work with businesses and nonprofits around the globe. Those experiences will now happen virtually.
The Minerva Project and Foundry College are partnering with traditional institutions to create active online learning experiences that far transcend a synchronous Zoom session.
And regardless of the length of the physical distancing, colleges and universities that didn't have robust disaster preparedness plans — the overwhelming majority of institutions — will almost certainly have to put stronger measures in place. Online learning will be a big part of those plans. It will cause institutions to invest in improving their offerings, which will seep into their traditional offerings as well.
As these experiences take root and improve, students at some of these institutions will come to enjoy hybrid learning experiences that mix online and offline learning in novel combinations.
The Bottom Line
The longer physical distancing continues — even policies of intermittent physical distancing — the more online learning will benefit. Even where students and faculty have bad experiences, the volume of students — and employed faculty members — will begin to shift to institutions that do online learning well.
The shorter the duration, the more online learning will take a hit for those in traditional institutions.
Where this will all shake out is yet to be determined, but odds are strong that online learning will continue to grow in the next couple of years — even if there remains a strong, vocal group of students, faculty and families who have a sour taste in their mouth from the whole experience.